Dr. Bayo Ogunrotifa is a Nigerian-born UK-based academic and sociology scholar. He is still very much concerned with the happenings back in his native Nigeria despite his long sojourn abroad.
He spoke with Tony Ademiluyi on the reasons why he chose sociology as an academic discipline, the challenges confronting Nigeria, and the way forward for the ‘Giant of Africa.’
Buzz Times: The most popular social science discipline is arguably economics. Why did you choose sociology as an academic discipline at the Obafemi Awolowo University, Ife?
Thank you for your question. The impression that lingers in peoples’ imaginations over the years is that economics is the most popular social science course, and most parents want their children to study the course. That was the impression that I had too when I applied to study economics, but when I enrolled for the sociology degree, I found out that the impression about economics is just a myth. Today, I am better than many economists when it comes to economic analysis because of two reasons. First, I discovered that sociology is the central discipline in social science, whose tentacles spread across other courses in social science. For instance, in sociology, we often study the sociology of the economic life of the people, politics of the society, social psychology of the people, and cultural dynamics that affect business, finance and economics. Second, I had the opportunity to read Marxist economics during my undergraduate and I concluded that the current orthodox economics is just a regurgitate neo-liberal Western economics that is hopelessly out of tune with the socio-economic realities of the African people. In fact, Marxist economics helps me to understand the myth around economics and the ability to question the economic direction of society and locate it within the wider development of the global economy.
Buzz Times: You made a First Class at OAU but you are currently living in exile in the UK and contributing to the academia there instead of in your country. Do you feel betrayed?
There are no sane individuals who will come to the UK and will not protest about the present state of decay, rot, and mismanagement of Nigeria’s wealth. The betrayal stems from the bankruptcy of the Nigerian political leadership to develop an economic policy that can uplift millions out of poverty, create jobs and move the society forward. I came to the UK for academic pursuit, but oftentimes I discuss with my colleagues in Nigerian universities, I vividly understood the rot within the Nigerian university system. As part of academia, I have the liberty to ply my trade anywhere in the world. I can decide to leave the UK tomorrow and go elsewhere, but currently, Nigeria is not an option.
Buzz Times: A school of thought believes that former President Olusegun Obasanjo put us in our current mess by not building more refineries which would have obliterated the need for subsidy. Do you share this view?
Dr. Bayo Ogunrotifa: Prior to 1999, the impression some of us had was that Northerners are the problem of Nigeria. But when I went to the University and I saw the atrocity perpetrated by ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo in government, I changed my perception, and I concluded that the ruling elite in Nigeria is intellectually sterile, bankrupt, and full of dead brains and they are incapable of advancing Nigeria beyond the present state of rot. It is wrong to assume that an individual is a problem. It is the ruling class in Nigeria that is the problem of Nigeria. Look at the ruling class in North Korea, they are developing rockets, nuclear bombs, android phones. Look at the ruling class in Iran, they are developing their rockets, cars, and industrial complexes. The same goes for Belarus, Poland, Brazil, Argentina, South Africa, UAE, and even Saudi Arabia. If you ask yourself, what has the Nigerian ruling class built in the last 30 years? Nothing. Even in the UK here, when they are developing, it is not as if they want to build roads and infrastructure, it is because of the need to develop capitalism and promote trade and businesses that made the British state develop the society. Ordinary refineries, the Nigerian ruling class cannot build a new one in the last 30 years. They make sure that old refineries don’t work so that they and their allies can be importing fuel into the country. For more than 12 years, they have spent over N10 trillion on turn-around maintenance but nothing to show for it. Obasanjo is part of the ruling class, and his policies kick-started the destruction of Nigeria. No new industries were built, the existing industries are in the shadow of itself. Obasanjo and Atiku privatized almost all the state enterprises. If you ask yourself, where are those enterprises today? They are nowhere to be found. Obasanjo regime sold those companies at give-away prices, and those who bought it stripped those companies' assets, sold them, and later sold the buildings. Most of the buildings are now religious centers today in Nigeria. In a bid to get debt relief, the Obasanjo regime sold the country to the Western World, IMF and World Bank and left Nigeria in a comatose state. Obasanjo always boasts that he left $67 billion as a foreign reserve. That is just ridiculous nonsense! The Obasanjo regime-built power plants in Nigeria but they did not address the distribution problem. Today, Nigeria is in darkness than before and nothing works in the country.
As for subsidy, there was nothing like fuel subsidy in Nigeria. There is a difference between truth and narratives. Truth is always constant, but narratives are what you want people to believe. The lies around subsidy started in 1986 and those lies had become a narrative over the years. It was because Nigerians don’t challenge it, and that is why successive governments since the IBB regime kept telling those lies and repeating such nonsensical narratives on fuel subsidy. Anytime, they want to increase fuel prices, they construct a narrative around subsidy, which is a lie. During the IBB regime, Nigerian refineries were working above optimal capacity and the fuel was produced for local consumption. Yet, the introduction of the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) led to an increment in fuel prices. The IMF and World Bank always told the Nigerian government since 1986 to let Nigerians be buying fuel at the international market price, but the pushback from the people and the resistance from labour unions and civil society did not allow those plans to come to fruition. If you study the fuel price increase regime from 1986 to date, you will discover that anytime, the Nigerian government wants to generate more revenue, they will increase fuel prices. But to convince Nigerians to buy such lies, they always construct narratives around subsidy. Is there any subsidy on Kerosene in Nigeria today? The answer is no. So also, there is no subsidy on aviation fuel. It is only petrol that they always claimed to have subsidized. During the Abacha era, there was a fuel price increment, even though refineries are working at optimal capacity. However, due to the lack of maintenance of refineries during the military era, the refineries were gradually performing below average in terms of production and refining of crude oil. Let me put this on record, the narratives on fuel subsidy gained important prominence during the Obasanjo regime. Having understood the technical problems facing the refineries, Obasanjo decided to follow the IMF/World recommendation and granted licenses to some companies to import fuel into Nigeria instead of making sure that the refineries worked at 100 percent capacity. It was later, I found out that Obasanjo had to accept such IMF/World recommendation as part of the promise of debt forgiveness by Western creditor nations including the London Club, Paris Club, and others. Therefore, the invention of subsidy was orchestrated as part of the conditionalities for more loans and debt forgiveness by the World Bank and IMF in 2000/2001. The scam around ''subsidy'' was concocted to deceive Nigerians and ensure that Nigerians are buying fuel at the international market rate as recommended by the IMF/World Bank. This policy was first initiated by the Obasanjo regime and supported by Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Charles Soludo, and other bankrupt and pseudo-economists that we have around. The foundation for the current mess around fuel price increments was laid by the Obasanjo regime.
Buzz Times: Do you share the view that Obasanjo sold out his countrymen by bringing in Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala from the World Bank knowing what the Bretton Woods Institution stands for and didn’t disappoint her Caucasian paymasters by not only getting paid in US Dollars thereby surreptitiously undermining the naira but also handing the whopping $12 billion to the London Club of Creditors and Paris Club in the name of a debt buyback?
As I just said, the Obasanjo regime sold the country to the West and its conglomerates such as IMF/World Bank. The coming of Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala from the World Bank was part of the conditionalities for more loans and debt forgiveness by these Bretton Woods Institutions. Okonjo-Iweala was in the cadre of these Bretton Woods Institutions. They deliberately imposed Okonjo-Iweala on Obasanjo, so that they have a trusted hand to implement the economic shock doctrine and reforms they wanted before granting more loans and debt relief. It was during that period that the narrative of ‘’Government has no business in doing business’’ emanated, and such narrative was deployed to ensure that NEPA was privatized, Nigeria Airways liquidated, NICOC insurance was privatized and sold at cheap price, Ajaokuta and other companies were sold at give-away prices, and there was increment in fuel price. It was during that period that $12 billion to the London Club of Creditors and the Paris Club was paid.
Buzz Times: The Late President Umaru Musa Yar’adua reversed the sale of the refineries to the Bluestar Consortium led by the duo of Alhaji Aliko Dangote and Mr. Femi Otedola. Looking back in retrospect, did Yar’adua make an error of judgement?
The sale of the four refineries to Dangote and Otedola was part of the conditionalities imposed by these Bretton Woods Institutions. It was due to pressure from Nigerians, civil society, labour unions that Obasanjo regime could not implement such a policy. What Obasanjo did was delay the sale to the end of his regime in 2007. In fact, it was one month before the expiration of his regime that he announced the sale of the refineries. The resistance against such sale was massive at the time, and when Yar’adua came in, he had no option but to bow to the will of Nigerians and reverse such an anti-people policy. You should remember that Obasanjo deliberately imposed Yar’adua on Nigerians at the behest of these Bretton Woods Institutions. They wanted someone who can continue with the useless and worthless policies that the Obasanjo regime implemented. As I said earlier the Nigerian ruling class is full of dead-brain individuals who have no plan for the country. Yar’adua was part of that ruling class, who continued with the narrative of fuel subsidy and allowed the refineries to rot so that private oil marketers can continue to import fuel into the country. No attempt was made to repair the refineries and ensure that they perform at 100 percent capacity. At the time that Yar’adua reversed the sale of the refineries, the value of the refineries was more than $12 billion, but Obasanjo regime hurriedly sold it to Dangote and Otedola at the ridiculous price of $750 million. Yar’adua did not make an error of judgement. If we have a radical or nationalist regime like those in 1960s and 1970s, I can assure you that the refineries will work and we will revert the fuel price to N100 per litre.
Buzz Times: President Bola Tinubu yanked off subsidy on his inauguration day which is the remote cause of the hardship most Nigerians are going through as his critics opine that there were no palliatives put in place before the controversial decision. You wrote a widely circulated piece on social media arguing that subsidy doesn’t even exist in the first place. Can you throw more light on your position?
As I said earlier, fuel subsidy is a scam concocted by the IMF/World Bank together with some pseudo-economists and government officials to increase the fuel price and ensure that Nigerians are buying fuel at the international market rate. To demonstrate this further, here is the truth of the matter. No foreign refineries will accept naira to export fuel to Nigeria. The foreign refineries will only accept either dollars or euros as the case may be. So, the question here is that where is that dollar going to come from? It is from the sale of Nigerian crude oil abroad by the NNPC and other oil multinationals. So, if we deduct Nigeria's oil receipt (made in dollars) from fuel import (made also in dollars), the difference shows that there is nothing like fuel subsidy. Now, look at these statistics. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria accrued $45.6 billion as oil revenue in 2022. In 2022, NNPC claimed to have spent $9.7 billion on fuel importation. You will recur that recently, NNPCL said they did not pay subsidy to any company since 2016. The subsidy in this case means the cost of freight, shipping, and other landing charges. The implication of this is that NNPCL has been the sole importer of fuel into the country. If we deduct $9.7 billion spent to import fuel from $45.6 billion oil revenue, this means that Nigeria still has a surplus of $36.9 billion. Can you now point out where their ''subsidy'' is in this surplus? As I said earlier, the fuel subsidy narrative is a scam and a lie to increase fuel prices in Nigeria.
Buzz Times: The public outcry against the 8000 naira a month palliative for 12 million households led to the Bola Tinubu administration jettisoning the idea. How can his administration best manage the current economic crisis and hardship that Nigerians have been inadvertently subjected to since he assumed office?
The impact of fuel price increment has caused untold hardship on the people. Even those who supported the idea that ‘’subsidy’’ should go are regretting their decision now. None of them envisaged that petrol will be sold at over N500 per litre. The implication of fuel price increment is that price of consumer goods and other commodities skyrocketed by more than 200 percent. The cost of transportation went over the roof and it became unbearable to the overwhelming majority of Nigerians. The Tinubu regime, having gauged the mood of the people, sort to calm the frayed nerves and douse the tension by announcing N8000 for 12 million households. There are more questions than answers about this policy. First, N8000 cannot address the ripple effects of inflation that were caused by the fuel increment. The second question is the methodology: how do you select 12 million households? What method do they want to use to disburse such funds? I discovered that such policy announcement was just to deceive the people and distract their attention. TheTinubu regime has no plan to give money to anybody. Rather, the Tinubu regime will squeeze the people more with more taxes and levies, as was done during his tenure as Lagos Governor. The Nigerian economy has reached an impasse and dead-end. There is nothing the Tinubu regime can do to rescue the sinking ship. For instance, the Tinubu regime has devalued the Naira by more than 44 percent since its inception. The exchange rate of dollar to naira now is around N900. The long implication of this is the final de-industrialization of Nigeria. Most foreign companies like Cadbury, GSK, and foreign airlines are at a loss. Most of the profits they made has been reduced in terms of value. For instance, if you have N50 million in your account in February this year, the value in dollars is around $253,000. But the same N50 million is still in your account today, which is August 2022, the value in dollars is going to be $55,555. This means that your money has been devalued or reduced in value by 5 times. That is the same problem facing foreign companies now. Most of their profits in billions of naira have been reduced by 5 times, and they are now at a loss. When GSK said they were leaving Nigeria, I know that economic problems are going to force other foreign companies to shut down operations. Even those who import materials and goods into Nigeria will need more than money 5 folds to be able to access dollars to import their goods. The flight from Lagos to London which was N200,000 in April 2023 will now be around N750,000. This is because foreign airlines are adjusting their price to the new economic reality around the floating policy of the naira. Tinubu will ruin Nigeria and destroy the country unless the Nigerian people stand up to the regime.
Buzz Times: What is your view on the Student Loan Act signed into law by President Tinubu?
The Student Loan Act is a scam to increase tuition fees in Federal universities. You will recur that Tinubu as Lagos state governor increased tuition fees at LASU and other state higher institutions during his tenure. The same policy was implemented by Fashola when he increased the tuition fees at LASU to N250,000 in 2013. When students and people protested, it was reverted to N80,000. That is the idea behind student loans. The tuition fees at Federal Universities are the cheapest in the continent. When I graduated in 2007, I discovered that the total money paid for tuition and accommodation for four years was less than N40,000. Now the Tinubu regime wants to increase tuition fees and now asks students to go and borrow loans to pay their tuition. This is the idea behind that policy.
Buzz Times: Food is extremely cheap in the UK because of government subsidies. Do you advocate the return of the marketing boards in Nigeria?
Let me first correct your impression, The UK government did not subsidize food for anyone. This is a wrong assumption. The UK practiced a free-market economy where companies engaged in fierce competition among themselves. Most companies have supply chains in Africa, Asia, and South America, where they buy foods at our cheapest price and sold them at a cheaper rate to the people. These companies look for suppliers who can supply them with these food products at the cheapest prices. This is because if the price of a product in company A is higher than that of company B, the consumers will opt for products from company B. It was due to this intense competition that made food to be cheaper in the UK. On the marketing boards in Nigeria, the abolition of the marketing board was part of the conditionalities imposed by the IMF/World Bank when SAP was introduced in 1987. Before its abolition, the marketing board acted as a stop-gap measure to protect the farmers from the shock and low prices that emanated from the fluctuating nature of agricultural prices at the international market. But IMF and World Bank insisted that such a marketing board should go because they wanted farmers to sell their goods at the international market themselves rather than using a marketing board. I don’t think IMF and World Bank will allow the marketing board, especially if Nigeria still plan to borrow money from them.
Buzz Times: Malaysia during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis was the Locus Classicus of how to call the bluff of the IMF. How can Nigeria – the ‘Giant of Africa’ follow suit and prove them wrong by prospering?
As long as Nigeria is practicing a capitalist system, the country cannot call the bluff of the IMF/World Bank. It is only a socialist government that can do that.
Buzz Times: The Chairman of the Tax Reforms Committee, Taiwo Oyedele called for the removal of VAT on diesel to boost the real sector thereby creating more jobs. Do you share his opinion?
Most of the so-called economic experts these days are just educated illiterates, who do not understand the economic fundamentals. I think Taiwo Oyedele is one of them. The key issue here is that Nigerian capitalism has reached its dead-end. There is nothing they can do again to revive it. Whether they impose more taxes or not, they are not going to get any improvement. The Nigerian ruling class has outlived its relevance as a class capable of developing the means of production. Ordinary refineries, they cannot build. During Jonathan's regime, more than 14 refinery licenses were granted between 2011 and 2015. Only Dangote refinery came to fruition. So, you think those who cannot build modular (small) refineries to refine crude oil locally when the economy was performing, build it now that the economy has nosedived? It would happen even if VAT were removed. The removal of VAT is just to put more money in the hands of a few people, who will not build anything but pocket it.
Buzz Times: Should market forces solely determine the prices of petrol?
Unless we challenge the economic doctrine of neo-liberalism that has underpinned Nigerian economic policy since 1999, Nigeria is never going to make any headway economically. This economic doctrine of ‘Government has no business in doing business’ is a fraud that has impoverished the country. It is only in Nigeria that we sold all the institutions and industries bequeathed to us by our founding fathers. Where are the groundnut pyramids today? Where are Kaduna textile industries? Where is Ado-Ekiti textile industry? Where are Oregun industries of those days? Where is the Ajaokuta steel company? Where is the Aladja steel company? Where is the Itakpe Iron-Ore company? Where is the Iwopin paper mill? Where are the industries in Jebba of those days? Where is the Nigerian Mining Corporation that was based in Jos in those days? Where is the Nigerian Airways? Where is the Osogbo steel rolling mill? Where is the Gboko cement factory? If I were to list all of them, you will be surprised how the Nigerian ruling class has ruined everything. If these industries still exist today, there will be less unemployment and Nigeria would have no cause to be importing virtually everything as we are currently doing. Under the guise of neoliberalism, they allowed these industries to collapse. Their expectation was that the private sector would step in and industrialize the country. But they were dead wrong. In most saner climes, they have state industries in places like Russia, Belarus, China, Poland, Czech Republic, France, and Germany, and they are still functioning. It is only in Nigeria that they looted our common patrimony and commonwealth dry and later sold it at giveaway prices to those who had no intention or financial means to develop it. You should ask yourself how many Nigerian businessmen can build their companies from scratch like Facebook, Twitter, Space X, Amazon, and others without government support. Many of them required government money to finance their business. Capitalism has long died in Nigeria, and the idea of market forces is just a myth. Businessmen and the private sector invest to make a profit, and therefore the welfare of the people is not on their agenda. I know some people will say that capitalism works effectively in America and Europe, but it does not work in Nigeria. For instance, can the companies of Dangote, Otedola, Adenuga, Elumelu, Dantata, Jimoh Ibrahim, and other billionaires exist without government money? It cannot exist. Even Atiku, Tinubu, and other companies required government funds to start and survive. As for the prices of petrol, market forces determine the price, but can people afford to buy fuel at N1000 per litre. If we have working refineries and an abundance of crude oil, we should be buying fuel at N100 per litre at most.
Buzz Times: You are an advocate of socialism as the best form of government for Nigeria. With the collapse of communism in most parts of the world including China which has now allowed limited free enterprise. Is that view really in tune with the times?
In most liberal and conservative media, socialism and communism have been conflated and when you investigate those claims, it emanated from those who know nothing about socialism and communism. In relation to your question, socialism is not a form of government and let me correct that impression. Socialism is a social system that advocated that the resources of society should not be in the hands of the few but must be used for the overwhelming majority of the people. It is important to set some records straight on capitalism and socialism for the benefit of Nigerians who are looking for fresh ideas. For capitalism to exist, there must be a strong capitalist class, like we have seen in the US, Canada, Europe, Japan, and now in China. But do we have a strong capitalist class in Nigeria? If you can’t ask this question, then it means you don’t understand what you are talking about. Some people stole and looted government money and then suddenly called themselves capitalists. They are not, they are just hustlers. If I should take you down the historical lane, you will agree with me that there was no capitalist class in Nigeria in 1914. It was in the 1940s that British capitalism brought together a coterie of small businessmen and traditional rulers and integrated them into the capitalist class because the British knew that capitalism cannot exist in Nigeria without the capitalist class. That was where the likes of Ojukwu’s father and other businessmen were given access to the British colonial administration and became their middlemen in Nigeria. It was in the 1950s and 1960s that the capitalist class steadily emerged when most Nigerians became directors in British companies when British directors were departing from Nigeria. The enactment of the Indigenisation decree in 1972 and 1976 was to ensure that the Nigerian capitalist class was fully developed and integrated into the global capitalist system. Yet, they were still weak. That was when MKO Abiola and a few others emerged, due to government patronage, contracts, and corruption. I can take you on and on to the likes of Otedola, Dangote, and Elumelu and how others emerged. They are a weak capitalist class, and they cannot advance capitalism in Nigeria. In fact, if government or state enterprises are working effectively, they will fizzle out in no time. They are the beneficiaries of privatization and backward neo-liberal policies in Nigeria. They are just hustlers, who cannot build anything from scratch like Facebook, Twitter, Space X, Amazon, etc. without government money and state assets. That’s why they are against state participation in the economy. Imagine if Nigerian refineries are working properly, the likes of Otedola and other oil marketers who are millionaires and billionaires will not exist. They became rich people on the back of the misery of Nigerians. Now, let's look at it this way, can an average business like Oando compete with Mobil or Texaco locally and internationally? The answer is no because they do not have the finance, personnel and technical know-how like Mobil and Texaco. But can NNPC compete with Mobil or Texaco locally and internationally? The answer is yes because NNPC is a state enterprise with huge financial capital and a huge technical workforce. The IMF/World Bank and Western countries that asked Nigeria to engage in privatization are not doing it because they love the country, they are insisting on such policies because they want their Western companies to dominate the local market. These institutions know that local private companies cannot compete with Western companies in terms of finance, personnel, and technology. That is what capitalism is about, which is squeezing people and making profits out of their misery. However, for socialism to exist, there must be a working class, who are going to run the system. What we are saying about socialism is that the resources of society should be left in the hands of the people and the state, and not left in the hands of the few private individuals who are hustlers and cannot develop society. The commanding height of the economy should not be left in the hands of private companies, but state companies must run effectively. It is those who destroyed or supervised the collapse of the state enterprises that later came out to say those enterprises are not working and they should privatize them. Look at all the privatized companies from NICON, NEPA, NITEL, Ajaokuta steel company, Gboko Cement, and others, where are they today? Are they still functional? They sold these companies at a cheap price to themselves, and they later found out that they cannot run them and then finally liquated them. Where are Nigerian Airways today? It was government officials, military officers and some personnel that looted the company, and they later claimed that it failed and liquated it. There are many examples if we can flash back into history. The arguments of the supporters of the private sector in Nigeria and throughout the world are that public enterprises have failed to live up to expectations and they tend to consume a large proportion of national resources. Such arguments are hollow and nonsensical. State enterprises are competing with private companies in China, Russia, France, Germany, Netherlands, Poland, Belarus, and some parts of East Europe and making profits and that arguments that they do not live up to expectations is just bullshit! As for the argument that state enterprises consume a large proportion of state resources is nonsensical too. This is because state resources are the resources of the people that must be used for the benefit of the people. Unlike those days when we have access to pipe-borne water, there is nowhere in Nigeria today where pipe-borne waters are running into peoples’ homes. If state resources cannot be used to build world-class hospitals or transform existing hospitals into world-class standards, then capitalism has failed and is doomed to be replaced in Nigeria, by either a peaceful process or otherwise.
Buzz Times: Renowned sociology scholars like Dr. Ibrahim Tahir and Dr. Patrick Wilmot rattled successive Nigerian governments from within with their brilliant intellectual interventions. Will you follow suit or be a safety-first radical apology to radical writer, Adewale Maja-Pearce by permanently railing from exile?
The issue is not about railing from exile, but about being a co-participant in the struggle to liberate the Nigerian people from the shackles of oppression and modern-day slavery that the ruling class has been subjected to. People are leaving the country en masse today because there is nothing there any longer. The quality of life now is appalling if we compare it to the last five years. Are we then going to sit down and watch this edifice collapse? As far as I am concerned, Nigeria’s fourth republic has outlived its usefulness and it can collapse at any time. The reason why Tinubu is rallying the ECOWAS heads of state to intervene in the Niger Republic is because he can see the handwriting on the wall in Nigeria. The 24 years of civilian rule in Nigeria have not advanced the cause of the people positively. The Tinubu regime rests on chicken legs and it can collapse at any time. Anything can happen in Nigeria at any time, especially if this economic impoverishment continues. One way or the other Nigerian people will revolt against the hardship, and such resistance will not be late by one minute or be delayed by a minute.
Buzz Times: Thank you for your time and submissions.
Thanks for having me.
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